A whistle stop tour of nuclear energy in the UK

Hello there, I’m Professor Hall and welcome to an in-depth look at nuclear energy production in the UK. Let’s take a moment to examine these headlines:

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And this one?

What about this one?

A clear pattern emerges: headlines about the UK’s new nuclear power stations under construction often feature the words ‘delayed’ or ‘costs’.

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What these headlines really represent is the UK’s complex recent history with nuclear energy production. Plagued by red tape and court cases, rising costs and the large inertia that comes with restarting its nuclear construction industry, it has not been a smooth sailing relationship. Let’s explore this issue further.

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Nuclear energy production has had a contentious history on the global stage.

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France, as an example, has fully embraced nuclear power, as it makes up for over half of the country’s energy mix and has plans for further expansion. In contrast, Germany had completely phased it out by 2023. Japan had begun to phase it out after 2011 but has since reversed this stance due to growing energy security concerns, and is now seeking to expand its nuclear capacity once again. The United Kingdom, too, has also made attempts to re-engage with nuclear energy.

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Currently, nuclear production constitutes approximately 10% of the UK’s energy mix. The approval of Hinkley Point C in 2016, the first new nuclear power station to be sanctioned in 20 years, signalled a renewed interest in nuclear energy as a key component of the UK’s energy strategy. Following this, Sizewell C received approval in 2021. However, recent reports, which remain contested, suggests that Sizewell C’s costs have almost doubled. This sounds worryingly similar to Hinkley Point C, whose construction and completion has been reminiscent of the challenges encountered with the HS2 project: continuously delayed and with a ballooning budget.

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When construction for Hinkley Point C commenced in 2018, the first unit was anticipated to be completed by 2025 at an estimated cost of 18 billion GBP. By 2022, these estimates were revised, with the completion date pushed to 2027 and costs rising to approximately 26 billion GBP. Disheartening but not calamitous. Yet as of today, its actual completion date remains vague. Instead, EDF, the company overseeing its construction, has outlined three possible dates of completion based on three scenarios. These place unit one becoming operational sometime between 2029 and 2031. This represents a four-to-six-year delay for Hinkley C. Furthermore, the costs are now expected to rise to between 31-35 billion GBP based on 2015 prices, or roughly 42-46 billion GBP in current prices.

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Sizewell C’s construction commenced in 2024, with a budget of 20 billion GBP. Using experience gained from the construction of Hinkley and by making it a near replica, it was anticipated that construction of Sizewell C would be completed in less time and at a lower cost. Yet, recent news suggests costs could double. While EDF has denied these claims, asserting that the project remains on schedule and within budget, the historical record suggests caution in accepting such assurances. With the government's final investment decision on Sizewell C to take place this year, there is a clear incentive for EDF to portray an image of stability even if behind the scenes it is far from that.

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But what does this all mean? For all the delays and cost increases, what are their true repercussions? Well, our nuclear generation capacity is going to decline.

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As older power stations are coming to the end of their operational lifespans, neither Hinkley nor Sizewell C is expected to be ready in time to fill in the gap they were promised to. This significantly affects the UK energy market’s ability to meet base load demand, posing threats to the security of the UK’s energy production and net-zero implementation.

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Although widespread battery storage and green hydrogen technologies are potential solutions, they are unlikely to be deployed at scale in the near future. As a result, the intermittency and unreliability of the UK’s renewable energy sources may leave a substantial gap in energy production, likely to be filled by gas, and the impacts of this are clear. There is a possibility that our emissions will go up and we will become more reliant on imports from Europe, which, given the current pressure on gas reserves, would likely come at an extortionate premium, ultimately passed onto consumers. Moreover, whilst the cost to consumers for Hinkley Point C is largely covered by its Contract for Difference contract, the government’s financial investment into Sizewell C means that any further cost increases could result in additional costs being passed onto the public.

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Truthfully, the UK and Nuclear energy’s recent relationship in recent years has been marked by significant challenges. Delays, rising costs, and uncertainty have defined this relationship, leaving the future of nuclear energy in the UK in a precarious position. The prognosis for large-scale nuclear power is uncertain, and a more realistic evaluation of the current state of affairs might conclude that the UK and nuclear energy are better off maintaining a more distant, non-committal relationship.

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But it isn’t all bleak news; Small Modular Reactors may be on their way…