The Disproportionate Nature of the Climate Crisis and the Aims to Address This

Although developing nations contribute around one-tenth of global carbon emissions, they are expected to bear the brunt of climate change and its consequences. The injustice of this is evident, as many high-income countries, which are least likely to experience the most devastating impacts of climate change, are often the most reluctant to take meaningful action or provide adequate support to nations that are suffering the most.

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Developing countries, especially small island states (SIDS) such as Kiribati, are most likely to experience the worst effects of climate change, including rising temperatures and sea levels. The lack of resources to respond and mitigate these changes will only amplify their impact. Compared to the 1980s, natural disasters are now occurring up to eight times more frequently, limiting development as nations must rebuild damaged infrastructure after each disaster.

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Rising temperatures are expected to significantly impact agriculture, leading to increased food insecurity, particularly in developing countries. The growing threat to over 1 million species and the resulting decline in biodiversity, alongside the rising likelihood of droughts, will exacerbate these challenges. The expected decrease in food security, paired with increasing frequency in natural disasters, is expected to become a catalyst for conflict in some areas. This is already evident in some areas of NorthernAfrica, where desertification and food insecurity are being exploited by extremist groups. By 2050, it is predicted that more than 143 million people will be driven from their homes due to conflict.

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Additionally, rising temperatures are facilitating the spread of deadly infectious diseases, potentially exposing a further 1 billion people. The World Health Organisation (WHO) predicts that between 2030 and 2050, an additional 250,000 people will die annually from malaria, with developing nations bearing the brunt due to limited resources and infrastructure to handle the increased disease burden.

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Economic activity in developing nations is also likely to be hindered by climate change. For instance, rising sea levels threaten major commercial ports in countries such as India (Mumbai) and Tanzania (Dar es Salaam), with serious flooding becoming an increasing risk. The damages from flooding and extreme weather could result in economic losses as high as $1.7 trillion per year by 2050. Inequality between developed and developing nations has increased by 25% since 1960 due to climate change, creating further barriers to growth and equality.  This inequality is expected to push an additional 68-135 million people into poverty by 2030. As inequality rises, it will further limit the ability of many developing nations to cope with the worsening effects of climate change.

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The most recent United Nations Climate Change conference, COP29, held last November in Azerbaijan, aimed to set out a more robust framework for responding to climate change, addressing the inequality of its effects, and improving accountability from developed nations.  A key achievement was the increase in pledges for climate finance to help developing nations mitigate and adapt to climate change.  The pledged amount for 2035 has increased from $100 billion in 2009 to $300 billion. Predictions by the United Nations Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD) suggest that this could grow to around $1.46 trillion with the help of the private sector and charitable investment.

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This growth in climate finance is part of the Baku to Belem Roadmap, which aims to enhance climate finance to help address the climate crisis. It is crucial for developing countries to access climate finance to better mitigate climate change and transition to a sustainable future, as for example, only 1-2% of foreign direct investment in renewable energy reaches Africa currently. This roadmap aims to close the capability gap and reduce the risks and challenges posed by climate change in developing nations.