In a world grappling with energy crises and geopolitical instability, pipelines remain a critical yet controversial infrastructure. They promise reliability, connecting resource-rich regions to energy-hungry markets, but also tie economies to fossil fuels at a time when global climate goals demand rapid decarbonisation. The recent completion of the Baltic Pipe, a 10 billion cubic meter (bcm) annual capacity gas pipeline linking Poland and Denmark to Norway, has reignited debate over whether the world should invest in more gas pipelines or transition away from them entirely.
The Baltic Pipe is a prime example of how pipelines can reshape regional energy security. Finished in late 2022 amidst Europe’s scramble to cut dependence on Russian gas, the pipeline provides Poland and its neighbours with an alternative supply from Norway. This shift was a direct response to the energy weaponisation seen after Russia invaded Ukraine. Before the war, Russia supplied 40% of Europe’s gas, with Poland being particularly reliant, sourcing more than half of its imports from Russian pipelines. The conflict laid bare Europe’s vulnerabilities, with Moscow cutting gas supplies to retaliate against Western sanctions. As a result, gas prices in Europe spiked over 400% in 2022 compared to pre-crisis levels, prompting a rapid diversification of energy sources through new pipelines like the Baltic and increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the U.S. and Qatar. These efforts offered some relief, but also raised questions about the long-term reliance on fossil fuel infrastructure.
With the success of projects like the Baltic Pipe, discussions about replicating such pipelines globally are gaining momentum. South Asia is one region where such infrastructure could have transformative effects. The proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, for example, has the potential to deliver 33 bcm of gas annually from Turkmenistan, home to the fourth-largest gas reserves in the world, to rapidly growing markets in India and Pakistan. However, this ambitious project has faced delays due to security challenges in Afghanistan and fluctuating regional politics. Meanwhile, Africa, which holds vast untapped gas reserves, could similarly benefit from pipelines that both stimulate economic growth and bolster global energy security. The proposed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, connecting Nigeria to Algeria and on to Europe, could also supply up to 30 bcm annually, providing a much-needed boost to European markets grappling with reduced Russian supplies. Yet financing and governance challenges in participating countries have stalled progress on this $13 billion project.
While pipelines are heralded as stabilising forces, their environmental and geopolitical risks cannot be ignored. Gas pipelines are a lifeline for many economies but remain tied to fossil fuels, which are a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Even though natural gas burns cleaner than coal and oil, its extraction and transportation often release methane, a potent greenhouse gas that exacerbates global warming. Environmental critics argue that building new pipelines locks nations into long-term fossil fuel dependence, directly undermining international climate goals like the Paris Agreement. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 will require halting investments in new fossil fuel infrastructure, including pipelines. Moreover, pipelines are geopolitical flashpoints. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was designed to deliver Russian gas directly to Germany, became a lightning rod for criticism, with opponents arguing it increased Europe’s energy reliance on an authoritarian state. Following the Ukraine invasion, the project was suspended indefinitely, underscoring the volatility of pipeline diplomacy.
Despite their drawbacks, pipelines could play a significant role in the green energy transition. Existing natural gas pipelines are increasingly being explored for retrofitting to transport hydrogen, a clean-burning fuel that emits only water when used. Europe has been at the forefront of this effort, with Germany, the Netherlands, and other nations studying how to repurpose their natural gas infrastructure for hydrogen transport. Hydrogen is expected to play a key role in decarbonising industries like steel and heavy transport and leveraging current pipelines could reduce the cost and time required to build new networks from scratch.
The debate over pipelines represents the broader tension between short-term energy security and long-term climate responsibility. Pipelines like the Baltic Pipe can provide much-needed stability and independence in volatile times, but they also risk delaying the transition to renewables. The future of global gas networks depends on balancing these competing priorities.