As we become increasingly aware of the effects of high carbon emissions and the need to transition to greener and more sustainable energy sources, many people are questioning will we be able to sustain our current energy needs without fossil fuels?
Last November the COP28 conference was held in Dubai, this has been seen to have formally recognised the end of the fossil fuel era, with over 200 countries pledging to bring emissions under 2 degrees Celsius by 2030. Despite the countries pledging to reduce emissions dramatically, many people believe that this isn’t possible in a practical sense as it would require a 43% reduction from 2019 emissions. This would require a total transformation of the energy supply grid, shown in Figure 1, where to keep within targets a significant decrease in emissions is necessary. In addition, eight donor governments announced new commitments to the Least Developed Countries Fund and Special Climate Change Fund, which pledges to help countries, that are predicted to be most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, like rising sea levels in Kiribati. The United Nations Environment Programme predicts that to maintain COP28 targets, emissions will need to fall by around 9% each year, which many believe is not currently possible. To aid the transition, governments pledged at COP28 to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
At current levels of use it is expected that fossil fuels will be depleted by 2060, however, scientists predict that demand will decrease long before then, peaking in 2030. Furthermore, the US Energy Information Administration predicted that energy related carbon emissions will rise until around 2050 in the US and then decline as resources begin to become more depleted by 2060.
Currently renewables account more than 30% of the world’s energy needs, but many people believe that relying only on renewable energy sources would be far too difficult and expensive currently. The percentage of renewable energy use varies from country to country, with the UK using 40.8% renewables in 2024 and the US using only around 10% (this varies from source to source). Initially, renewable energy can be very expensive to invest in, a potential barrier for many lower income countries looking to transition to renewable energy. However, in the long run, they can be relatively cheap and inexpensive to maintain. Renewable sources are available in all countries and their potential is yet to be fully harnessed, which means that they could provide benefits, development and employment worldwide.
There is also a geopolitical argument where many people believe that it is unfair to push poorer countries to reach zero carbon emissions too early as they were not responsible for the majority of the emissions. Attesting that it would be unfair to restrict them from utilising their own fossil fuel resources when richer countries have been able to and have generated large amounts of wealth in the process.
Many people also argue that it is too difficult to transition fully to sustainable energy sources due to travel and cargo reasons. Many believe that electric cars are inaccessible, unaffordable and unreliable, making them an unattractive option when buying a vehicle. This is reflected by the large overestimation by governments in the speed of electric vehicle roll out. In addition, planes are a large part of world travel and economy, and still largely require fossil fuels. But with the slow roll out of electric cars, an electric plane now seems like a long way away.